"EL NINO" IS BACK

A FORECAST that another El Nino is on the way means even harsher conditions for drought-parched eastern Australia, a climatologist has warned.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has reported that an El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that causes regional drought, has formed and will last into 2007. Associate Professor Stewart Franks, from Newcastle University, said that in eastern Australia, El Nino typically led to lower than normal rainfall from October to March.The development of El Nino conditions, he said, was "possibly the worst news we could have".

While the effects of previous El Nino events have largely been felt only in rural communities, Prof Franks said current water shortages in Australian cities meant urban populations could now feel the impact."Our concern is that we're already in a drought," he said. "We had an El Nino about four years ago, 2001-2003, and what it meant is that we had that awful drought. "We've not had good rains since, really, and so we're still in that drought. "Now with the prospect of an El Nino on top of that, it means that agriculture is going to struggle again."Prof Franks said perhaps even more significantly, water resources and supplies were already so low that a new El Nino could threaten urban populations."It's entirely feasible we'll see much stronger restrictions than we have seen over previous years,'' he said."All over eastern Australia there are many urban water supplies which are already struggling and this El Nino is possibly the worst news we could have."Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead El Nino forecaster, said the current conditions were weak, "but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter".

NOAA also said the effects of the phenomenon were already being felt in Asia, where Indonesia and Malaysia had been experiencing dryer-than-average conditions. This was likely to continue for the rest of the year, NOAA said.

The administration also said El Nino conditions in the Pacific helped explain why this year's Atlantic hurricane season had ben less active than forecast.